NFL Championship Weekend Picks: AFC & NFC Best Bets

The AFC and NFC Championship games will take place on Sunday and we will know who will compete in this year's Super Bowl.

These are Deadspin's top betting picks.

Patriots vs. Broncos

This is as much a bet on the New England Patriots defense as it is a bet against Jarrett Stidham. Let’s start with the obvious for the Denver Broncos.

Bo Nix was injured in their overtime win against the Buffalo Bills, leaving Stidham to take over the offense. He hasn’t played meaningful snaps since 2023, and he was far from an elite option. It’s highly unlikely he finds high-end success in the AFC Championship Game.

New England is also playing at an elite level on defense. They’ve given up 19 total points to the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans in the playoffs. The Patriots haven’t given up more than 16 points in a game in over a month.

The Broncos will benefit from playing at home, where it’ll be drastically easier for Stidham to take over the offense. That said, it isn’t likely to matter. This isn’t a team that’s built for success without Nix.

New England should lean heavily on their defense, making it difficult for the Broncos to sustain long drives.

Where to Bet: Denver Broncos under 20.5 team total | -148 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 27-46

Rams vs. Seahawks

We officially get the NFC Championship Game that the majority of the world was expecting halfway through the season. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks will face off for the third time this season.

The first two games of this series have been decided by a total of three points. The Rams were thoroughly outplayed in a one-point win. The second game was closer in terms of the number, although Los Angeles played slightly better, yet the Seahawks came away with an overtime win.

These have been the two best offenses in the NFL this season. They also both feature elite defenses, but I trust Seattle more than Los Angeles at this point. It is important to note that they’ve both found plenty of success, though.

The major difference here is where the game will be played. The Seahawks have featured an unbelievable offense at home this season. They’re averaging 0.550 points per play at home, which is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin.

Arguably as important as Seattle’s success at home is that the Rams’ defense has been significantly worse on the road. They’re giving up 0.346 points per play on the road compared to 0.292 at home.

This is arguably the “real” Super Bowl, and I’m leaning toward the home team.

Where to Bet: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 spread | -104 at FanDuel Sportsbook